BRASILIA - Brazil's presidential race narrowed to a statistical dead heat in a new poll on Thursday, causing investors to react for the first time in months to the
possibility of a victory by opposition candidate Jose Serra.
The survey by polling firm Sensus showed Serra trailed ruling party candidate Dilma Rousseff by just four percentage points -- within the poll's margin of error, and a far cry from the 20-point lead Rousseff enjoyed in late August.
The poll showed Rousseff with 46.8 percent support and Serra with 42.7 percent in the Oct. 31 runoff. Other recent polls have given Rousseff a lead of as much as eight points, raising questions about whether the Sensus survey was an outlier.
Still, it is clear that a recent corruption scandal, plus a controversy over Rousseff's abortion views, have badly eroded support for the career civil servant whom President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva chose as his preferred successor.
As a result, many investors began to hedge their bets on Thursday in case Serra wins -- signaling a potential shift in an election financial markets have largely ignored because Rousseff was the prohibitive favorite.
"No one imagined we could see this 'technical tie' so early, and so the market is pricing this in," said Paulo Nepomuceno, an economist at Brazil's Coinvalores brokerage.
"The movement (in markets) is very strong."
By Raymond Collit
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